CBO Identifies Source of Weak BLS Reports---Over-immigration

CBO Explains Bad BLS Reports: Over-Immigration

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has a message for disaffected citizens who have watched legal and illegal workers replace Americans: Get used to it! Since 2021, the onset of Joe Biden’s presidency, 9.3 million people have entered the United States, more than three times the net number that arrived in the country during the previous decade. Using cautious, politically correct prose, CBO identified the biggest net increase of 6.5 million as “other foreign nationals,” which includes “people who entered the U.S. undetected, as well those who were paroled into the country and are awaiting proceedings in immigration court.” In plain language, the arrivals are low-skilled, under-educated, non-English-speaking illegal aliens. The largest sending countries are Venezuela, an avowed enemy of the U.S., Mexico and Honduras, 14%, 13%, and 8.5% respectively. In addition, CBO estimates that the non-immigrant population which includes employment-based visa holders has increased by about 230,000 since 2020. Among the 6.5 million illegal aliens, CBO concluded that “most of them work.”

Another category that must be considered are the two million gotaways that the House Homeland Security Committee estimates have slipped undetected into the U.S. and may be working in the $3 trillion underground economy. The arriving illegal immigrants, noted CBO, “are younger [about 78%] and more likely to be of working age...” Among the recently arrived illegal immigrants aged16 or older, 68% are either employed or looking for employment, a total of about five million individuals. CBO analysts determined that, based on U.S. Census data, illegal immigrants who arrived since 2020 are more than twice as likely than U.S. workers to have dropped out or never attended high school. Those without high-school diplomas earn less than their American-born contemporaries; their willingness to work for a lower income is attractive to unscrupulous employers. Cheap labor is always in vogue. Their occupations are concentrated in jobs that Americans, especially under-employed Americans, can and would do. They include construction, carpentry, landscaping, drivers, housekeepers, and janitors. Their low education achievement prevents them entering the skilled labor field.

The August BLS establishment survey showed that the economy created a tepid 142,000 jobs. But the big story is August’s Household Survey that collects comprehensive employment data including demographic facts. CBO suggested that the illegal alien population might be larger than the August BLS Household Survey indicated. First, unlawfully present residents may be hesitant to share personal information with the Census Bureau representative who, on behalf of BLS, interviews them. And second, the report does not count the number of newly arrived Biden-Harris open border illegal immigrants who are employed. The dramatic increase in the immigrant population includes 2.6 million lawful permanent residents who receive employment authorization.

Recent Household Surveys have reflected a growing gap between native-born and foreign-born employment. In August, the number of U.S. born employees fell by 1.3 million and the number of foreign born employees increased by 635,000. Over the past 12-months, native born employment has contracted from 131 million to 129.7 million, a loss of 1.3 million natives from payrolls. The number of foreign-born employees has grown from 30.4 million to 31.6 million, a gain of 1.2 million. Since October 2019, native-born U.S. workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained three million jobs.

An estimate of the illegal alien population published in June 2023 put the total at a record high 16.8 million. That highest-ever total is significantly greater than the January 2022 illegal alien population estimate of 15.5 million, and the 2024 count, when it is released will be higher still. The unprecedented surge in legal and illegal immigrants, which the CBO report identified, has changed the U.S. labor force in ways that are likely to reverberate throughout the economy for decades. Given the trend that started in 2019 and continues today, Americans’ unemployment crisis will do more than “reverberate.” The demographic shift will create an earthquake of more unlawfully present workers who take citizens’ jobs. The great displacement is no longer theory but established, cold fact as published government statistics confirm.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org