Whither Kamala?

Despite the sound defeat that Vice President Kamala Harris suffered in the 2024 presidential election, she’ll likely remain in the public eye. In her November 6 concession speech, she admitted that she planned to stick around. Harris said, "I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign: the fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness, and the dignity of all people. A fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect America at our best. That is a fight I will never give up."

For high-visibility, vainglorious politicians who have held powerful positions like Harris---San Francisco District Attorney, California Attorney General, U.S. Senator, and Vice President---giving up 20 years in the limelight goes against the grain. Harris could follow the examples that previously defeated presidential candidates set. Her options are many. Harris might start a foundation like Jimmy Carter did after his 1980 defeat to Ronald Reagan. The Carter Center, which builds sustainable housing and prevents disease from spreading in developing countries, helped the former one-term president the win the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize. After Al Gore narrowly lost the 2000 election to George W. Bush, in 2005 he established the Alliance for Climate Protection, renamed The Climate Reality Project. Foundations are nice but hardly the stuff of substantial public exposure.

Or Harris could follow President Richard Nixon’s strategy. After his 1960 defeat to President John F. Kennedy and a subsequent loss in California’s 1962 gubernatorial race to Democrat incumbent Pat Brown, Nixon spent years promoting GOP candidates nationwide and, by 1968, had accumulated political favors that he cashed in on. Another Harris presidential bid, theoretically possible, is not in the cards because it would end in a comparison to Adlai Stevenson, a two-time loser to President Dwight David Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. More Harris options: she could join a high-end law firm, become a lobbyist, or retire to private life and wait for book or Netflix deal advances to come in. The Obamas got $65 million from Penguin Random House to release both their memoirs. Harris and spouse Doug Emhoff are not Michelle and Barack, but they would still command a hefty advance.

A safe bet on Harris’ future is that she will run to replace termed out California Governor Gavin Newsom, a perfect situation for her. The gubernatorial election is in 2026, which gives Harris time to kick back before stumping again. Campaigning in California would be cake for Harris as opposed to trying to sell herself to a skeptical national electorate. Harris is a known quantity in California and would benefit from incessantly glowing media coverage. As of today, Harris’ likely competition, many of whom might drop out rather than face certain defeat in a primary, are Toni Atkins, Senate president pro tem, Eleni Kounalakis, California’s Lieutenant Governor, Tony Thurmond, California’s superintendent of public education, Xavier Becerra, Health and Human Services Secretary, Betty Yee, former controller and the California Democratic Party’s vice chair, and finally a name familiar to long-standing enforcement advocates, the pro-immigration Antonio Villaraigosa, once Los Angeles’ mayor and unsuccessful 2018 gubernatorial candidate. Harris has statewide name recognition while the others are, in many corners of California, unknown. One issue that Harris and her potential challengers share is unbending support for open borders and amnesty for already-present illegal immigrants.

The most interesting thing to watch in a Harris gubernatorial bid would be how she interacts with Newsom. For more than a year, Newsom displayed everywhere his naked ambition to displace President Joe Biden. When Harris took over as the nominee, Newsom vanished. Consider his snide remark about Harris after her coronation: “We went through a very open process, a very inclusive process. It was bottom-up, I don’t know if you know that. That’s what I’ve been told to say.” Insiders know that Newsom, confident that he would win, favored an open convention to replace Biden. No doubt secretly delighted that Harris absorbed a drubbing; Newsom is back as 2028’s leading candidate.

In politics, four years is an eternity. When 2028 rolls around, Newsom or any other Democratic presidential nominee may be campaigning in a California that, based on the right-shift towards Trump from 2016 to 2020 and finally in 2024 for a 12 percentage point gain, may be as red as it is blue.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org