Asian Voters Rising in Numbers

Voters trying to follow the 2024 presidential election’s latest trends will not get any clarity from national media coverage. Take a look at these headlines, NBC: “Asian Americans Rise as a Powerful Voting Bloc,” theme—Asian American vote will be key in swing states; ABC: “How Growing Latino Vote Could Factor in 2024 election,” theme---Latinos are the second largest voting group in U.S,” Tufts University, “41 Million Gen Z Members Will be Able to Vote in 2024,” theme---diverse and politically active generation will have a major impact on election; Pew Research, “An Early Look at Black Voters Views,” theme---black voters will play a crucial role in the 2024 race; NBC, “Lotus for POTUS,” theme---in Sanskrit, Kamala means lotus, in English, Kamala means POTUS.

In her “Lotus for POTUS” story, NBC reporter Sakshi Venkatraman who writes about South Asian American diaspora, immigration and visa issues painted an optimistic picture about Harris’ election chances. Harris’ campaign, Venkatraman wrote, has energized South Asian voters who connected to their shared identity with the Vice President and are ready to support her at the ballot box.

No one questions that winning the Indian vote is important. The Census Bureau reported that the Indian-alone population became the nation’s largest Asian-alone group in 2020, growing by over 57.4% to 4.4 million between 2010 and 2020. The nation’s most populous Asian-alone or in any combination in 2020 was the Chinese, except Taiwanese, with 5.2 million, an increase of 37.2% since 2010. Other Asian-alone U.S. residents had notable population increases during the ten-year period that the Census Bureau studied: Filipino alone, three million, up 20%, Vietnamese alone, two million, up 26.0%, Korean alone, 1.5 million (up 6.0%). Japanese alone, however, dipped slightly by 742,000, down 3.2%. An “alone” population, as the Census Bureau defines the word in the context of its research, is a respondent who identifies as one race rather than a combination of races like Filipino/American.

But the enthusiasm for Harris that buoyant stories forecast a Harris presidency could be premature. Many of the stories rely heavily on social media buzz which may be, by Election Day, meaningless. But analysts who rely on Census Bureau facts might draw a different conclusion about Harris’ political future. The largest Asian-alone or Asians in any combination are concentrated in California and New York with, respectively, 18% and 16%. The two heavily Democrat strongholds as well as blue Washington State and New Jersey where large numbers of Indians also reside are a near-certainty to vote for Harris. and therefore, represent no Electoral College gain for the Vice President.

Moreover, many Indians hold Harris in low esteem---an attitude of “do you really love us or is it our votes you covet?”  When Harris entered the presidential race, the New York Times wrote that the vice president’s Indian heritage is “little advertised.” If, as the Times wrote, her Indian heritage was it mostly unknown, the fault would be hers for not promoting it. Harris, with an Indian mother and black Jamaican father, has long been touted as a historic figure who broke glass ceilings. When interviewed, however, some Indian Americans said they feel Harris’ Indian identity is highlighted only when it’s, in their word, “convenient” for her.  Suhail Khan, a former Bush administration official, said that both the Democrat Party and Harris have made the calculation that her African American roots need to be emphasized to have a greater appeal to black voters. [Aside: Those who consider Harris a historic, glass ceiling-breaking woman should review her biography from 1994 when Speaker of the California Assembly Willie Brown, who was then dating Harris, appointed her to the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Assistance Commission until 2017 when she was elected to the U.S. Senate]

Akash Chougule, an Indian American commentator, said that while Harris might want to lean into her ethnic background “when it is politically convenient to do so,” the reality, in his view, is that it does not matter. What matters, he continued, “are her policy positions, which would be a nightmare for most Americans and especially for the Indian American community.” Chougule’s observation strikes at the center of the matter. Indian Americans list the economy and immigration as their top priorities. The two issues are intertwined. The Biden/Harris administration has promoted and tolerated mass immigration. They’ve also pushed for amnesty since their Inauguration Day, a policy that would hurt Americans of all racial backgrounds.

Asian populations will continue to grow through births to U.S-residing families and chain migration. Other Asian presidential candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley and Harris will continue to make their cases for White House candidacy. But in 2024, the Indian voting base is not deep enough to carry the day for Harris. Her greatest drawback, as Chougule noted, are her dreadful policy positions which are inconsistent with all Americans’ values.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org